Just 10 years to make a difference
1 Sep 11
Accompaning their main report the Commission has prepared a brief (four page) statement on the key impacts of climate change for the Illawarra and NSW south coast region.
Here are the highlights:
1. Higher temperatures will increase the likelihood of large and intense fires.
Average temperatures in NSW have risen by approximately 1oC since the 1950s along with the number of heatwaves and record hot days (Figure 1). Conditions for large and intense fires (low humidity, high winds and extreme temperatures) are likely to become more common by 2050, with intense fires projected to increase by up to 20%. To manage the situation, the Commission suggests that prescribed burnings will need to double or triple, “which is costly and comes with its own risks”.
Figure 1. The number of record hot days at Australian climate reference stations is rising.
2. Rising sea levels will exacerbate existing vulnerability of coastal towns and infrastructure in the Illawarra/NSW south coast region.
Global sea levels are projected to increase by 0.5m to 1.0 m this century. A sea-level rise of 50 cm will increase frequency of coastal flooding; 1-in-100 year events could occur every few months, damaging low-lying infrastructure and eroding sandy beaches. A sea-level rise of 1.1 metre would threaten hundreds of commercial buildings in the Wollongong and Shoalhaven areas and may affect 100-150 light industrial buildngs in Shellharbour. Wollongong has about 50 km of rail exposed to coastal flooding.
3. Changing rainfall patterns and the risk of more intense rainfall events pose challenges for low-lying urban centres in the Illawarra and NSW south coast.
With rising temperatures, a patten of more severe droughts and more intense rainfall events is likely to occur. The rainfall events will increase the risk of flooding, particularly in urban areas along the coast.
4. Biodiversity will be at risk.
The Illawarra region is home to 69 threatened animal species, including the green and gloden bell frog and southern brown bandicoot and 31 threatened plant species. Rare and threatened species with small geographic ranges are particularly vulnerable to high temperature extremes, increased and more intense bushfires and changes to rainfall patterns.
The Commission states that this decade is critical. To minimise risk of the above changes we need to start now to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and move to clean energy sources. The longer we wait the more difficult and expensive it is to make the changes and the less chance we have of averting the risks.
More details are available at:
<http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/illawarransw-south-coast-climate-change-impacts/> Sandy Fritz